Discussion Paper - As part of Special Issue: Bio-psycho-social foundations of macroeconomics

Beyond quantified ignorance: rebuilding rationality without the bias bias

Henry Brighton

March 15, 2019

Abstract

 

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article, the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question shifts from being axiomatic/probabilistic in nature to being algorithmic/predictive in nature. These distinct views on rationality mirror fundamental and long-standing divisions in statistics.

 

Get our latest updates

Get the latest updates, news and event dates mailed straight to your inbox

Follow us on social media

  • Twitter
  • YouTube

2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom                                    Contact UsPrivacy Policy | Terms Of Use

© National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2019